by Khaldun Al Saadi

Germany, as Europe’s largest economy and political anchor, faces a transformative moment that holds profound implications not only domestically but also for the European and global order. I will focus on three interconnected themes: the risk of right-wing extremism in the upcoming elections, the reshaping of Germany’s political landscape, and the broader implications for European leadership in an era of geopolitical turbulence. I will conclude with some personal remarks on the importance of the documentation center on the right wing extremist NSU-complex as an element of facing these challenges.

1. The Risk of Right-Wing Extremism and the February Elections

In February 2025, Germany will hold elections that go beyond simply deciding the next chancellor. These elections will serve as a referendum on the strength of Germany’s democracy. Political fragmentation, economic unease, and societal discontent have created fertile ground for the rise of far-right extremism, epitomized by the surging popularity of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). This is not a fringe issue: the AfD’s recent victory in Thuringia marked the first time a far-right party won a state election since 1949. Nationally, the AfD now polls ahead of several mainstream parties, signaling its alarming entrenchment in the political mainstream.

This rise is not occurring in isolation. Economic stagnation, regional disparities, and a sense of disenfranchisement, particularly in East Germany, have created a perfect storm for extremist narratives. East Germany, with its unique socio-economic challenges, has become the heartland for both the AfD and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance. While the latter does not represent the same threat to democracy, it is reshaping the political landscape by appealing to voters disillusioned with traditional parties and leaning towards support for a “Russian worldview” despite the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Germany’s response must be decisive. Policies focused on reducing income inequality and investing in infrastructure are essential to countering the grievances that extremists exploit. Political leaders must also foster a renewed commitment to democratic values, ensuring that vulnerable communities are not scapegoated but empowered. Empowered insofar as they are acknowledged by all parts of society as being equal in dignity.

2. Germany’s Fragmented Political Landscape

The collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition underscores the deepening fragmentation of Germany’s political system. This fragmentation reflects broader European trends, where voters increasingly turn away from established parties, seeking alternatives that promise to address their frustrations. The sudden spike in new party members across the Greens, Social Democracts and Liberals in Germany after the collapse are a good sign for democracy but might not change the overall trend.

In East Germany, economic disparity and demographic challenges—such as an aging
population and outward migration—have fueled political volatility. These regions are also less multicultural than their western counterparts, making them more susceptible to exclusionary and nationalist rhetoric. While the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance capitalizes on left-wing economic populism and skepticism about globalization, the AfD weaponizes these sentiments to advance its far-right agenda.

This fragmentation complicates governance. After February, forming a stable coalition will be more challenging than ever, especially as mainstream parties struggle to reconcile policy differences while excluding extremist factions. The danger lies in normalizing the rhetoric or positions of far-right parties during this process, further eroding democratic norms.

Germany must focus on rebuilding public trust by fostering policies that prioritize social cohesion, equitable development, and ecological transformation, while at the same time adopting a communication approach that embraces openness and accessibility—speaking in plain, relatable language while openly acknowledging mistakes. By doing so, leaders can create a culture where accountability and dialogue take center stage, inviting citizens into the conversation and demonstrating that their concerns and perspectives are genuinely heard and addressed. This commitment to transparency and inclusivity is essential to countering the allure of populism and extremism.

3. Implications for European Leadership

Germany’s domestic challenges have significant implications for Europe. The continent is navigating a period of heightened insecurity, with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, uncertainties about U.S. transatlantic commitments, and rising geopolitical tensions. Germany, historically a pillar of European stability, must balance addressing its internal fragmentation with providing external leadership.

However, Germany’s ability to lead is complicated by its own internal divisions and the persistent lack of strategic convergence with France. As Barbara Kunz highlights in her analysis in INTERNATIONALE POLITIK QUARTERLY, Franco-German defense cooperation remains mired in conflicting priorities and visions. While Germany prioritizes territorial defense and transatlantic ties, France has long advocated for European strategic autonomy.The divergence is evident in projects like the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) and disagreements over NATO’s trajectory.

This lack of convergence hinders Europe’s ability to respond collectively to emerging threats. While Germany has embraced its “Zeitenwende” moment by increasing defense spending and supporting Ukraine, its reliance on U.S. security guarantees contrasts sharply with France’s push for a less U.S.-dependent Europe. These differences must be reconciled if Germany and France are to jointly lead Europe through this turbulent era.

Germany’s political fragmentation also risks undermining its credibility as a leader. The normalization of far-right rhetoric within domestic discourse could alienate European partners and weaken Germany’s moral authority on issues of democracy and human rights.

Conclusion: A Call to Action

Germany’s shifting political landscape is a reflection of broader global challenges: the rise of populism, increasing polarization, and the erosion of trust in traditional political systems. The decisions Germany makes now will not only shape its own future but will echo across Europe and the world.

Countering the rise of right-wing extremism requires bold action. Economic inequality and social exclusion must be addressed with tangible policies that bring opportunity and dignity to all citizens, particularly in regions feeling left behind. Germany must champion democratic values—not as abstract ideals, but as concrete practices embedded in everyday governance and public life. And as Europe’s political anchor, Germany has a responsibility to rebuild trust with its partners by demonstrating unity, leadership, and a shared vision for the continent’s future.

At this critical juncture, documentation and reflection are indispensable tools in safeguarding democracy. This is where initiatives like the Documentation Center on the NSU complex, which I am honored to co-lead, play a crucial role. By uncovering and confronting the systemic failures that allowed the NSU’s crimes to occur, we are not just preserving history—we are creating a foundation for accountability and democratic resilience. The center serves as a living reminder of the consequences of extremism and the urgent need for vigilance, transparency, and justice.

Our work at the center is not merely retrospective; it is profoundly forward-looking. It seeks to inspire a Germany where every individual feels seen, valued, and protected—an antidote to the forces of division that threaten our society. As Germany grapples with its political and social transformation, the NSU Documentation Center is a strategic pillar in the fight for a stronger, more cohesive democracy.

Germany has proven its capacity for resilience and renewal throughout its history. This is yet another defining moment—a chance to not only confront its challenges but to lead by example in Europe and beyond. Together, through action, reflection, and commitment, we can ensure that democracy not only survives but thrives in the face of adversity.

Sources

Barber, T. (2024) The eastern inheritance of United Germany, Financial Times. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/1aa0c794-2db7-4026-905f-5a395bb25980 (Accessed: 24 November 2024).
Doetsch, F. (2024) Warum Parteien Momentan Mitglieder Gewinnen, tagesschau.de. Available at: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/parteien-neumitglieder-100.html (Accessed: 24 November 2024).
Foy, H. (2024) Why Scholz caved on an early high-stakes German election, Financial Times. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/8803c0b7-3912-4a01-ac19-62719d4df24f (Accessed: 24 November 2024).
Kunz, B. (2024) The persistent lack of strategic convergence between France and Germany, Internationale Politik Quarterly. Available at: https://ip-quarterly.com/en/persistent-lackstrategic-convergence-between-france-and-germany (Accessed: 24 November 2024).
Mazower, M. (2024) Trump’s victory Will Change America. but Europe can have a different future, Financial Times. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/4195aea4-872c-4205-a330-460435e174e1 (Accessed: 24 November 2024).