Envisioning the World of the Future –
Three scenarios of global power balance in the post-COVID-19 world in 2030
During the Global Diplomacy Lab prE-Summit, a group of 15 GDL members used the opportunity to experiment with the Foresight methodology, exploring what global power balances might look like in the year 2030.
The general approach is straightforward: First, they identified factors that influence the future of the international system. These factors were then assessed in terms of their uncertainty and impact in order to identify relevant trends and the so-called key uncertainties: factors that have a high impact on the future of the global power balance but are very hard to predict.
They then dived deeper into some of these key uncertainties in order to better understand them and develop alternative assumptions for their future development. Afterwards they used all these puzzle pieces to construct raw scenarios.
Facilitating the sessions was Dr Johannes Gabriel, founder and managing director of Foresight Intelligence who has more than 13 years experience working in the field of strategic foresight.